Pre-holiday downstream demand restocking led to subdued trading, with lead prices continuing to fluctuate downward. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened with a gap at 17,300 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 17,355 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 17,250 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 17,265 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.46%.

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,971/mt, initially fell and then rose to a high of $1,980/mt during the Asian session, and then fluctuated downward to a low of $1,964/mt during the European session, finally closing at $1,964.5/mt, down $10.5/mt, a decrease of 0.53%.

》Click to view SMM lead spot historical quotations

Macro-wise, the US dollar index fell 0.46% overnight. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump signed an executive order on so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House on the 2nd, announcing that the US would impose a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and higher tariffs on certain trading partners. Given the nervous sentiment over the tariff announcement, the US dollar showed little reaction to data indicating that US private employment growth in March exceeded expectations.

Spot Fundamentals:

In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2505 contract; in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC and Jinde lead were quoted at parity against the SHFE 2505 contract. SHFE lead showed a consolidation trend, and due to the limited circulating cargo, suppliers stood firm on quotes, with some small premium cargoes being traded in small volumes. Meanwhile, ex-factory quotations for primary lead smelters turned from premiums to discounts, with mainstream producing areas quoting premiums of 0-100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory, while secondary lead smelters expanded discounts for sales, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, with some planning to take holidays during the Qingming Festival, showing moderate purchasing enthusiasm, and some purchasing as needed before the holiday, with spot transactions slightly improving.

Inventory-wise: As of April 1, LME lead inventory increased by 250 mt to 232,175 mt; as of March 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions monitored by SMM reached 72,500 mt, an increase of over 600 mt compared to March 24, and an increase of 3,300 mt compared to March 27.

》Click to view SMM metal industry chain database

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Refined lead supply in April is relatively stable, although new capacity for secondary refined lead still has plans to increase production in April, but given the expected tight supply of scrap battery raw materials and declining profits, it is not ruled out that smelters may be forced to cut production. On the consumption side, the lead-acid battery market is about to enter the traditional consumption off-season, with demand expected to weaken. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of "trade-in" subsidy policies in various provinces and cities to buffer the impact of the off-season. Downstream stocking enthusiasm was poor before the Qingming Festival holiday, with spot market trading being light, and lead prices may continue to fluctuate downward.